China’s return to global aviation has been made apparent with an
uptick in airline capacity which moved back to 97.2 million, said OAG.
“Although quite how long before the next capacity cut is anyone’s
guess. This week’s capacity data would be very quiet if it wasn’t for
that one major change in China,” it said.
According to the aviation data provider, nearly all of the 15%
week-on-week increase in capacity in Northeast Asia is a result of
movements in China.
“Hong Kong has a modest 15,000 more seats this week with Cathay
Pacific reopening some routes including Bangalore and Japan Airlines
relaunching its Haneda service,” it said.
OAG showed that China’s return stemmed from “specific capacity
growth” of China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, two
carriers in the top 20 scheduled airlines, which added back some 600,000
seats in one week.
China Eastern’s week-on-week capacity rose 33.6% while China Southern saw 36.2% growth.
“To put that in context, that is more capacity than the whole Avianca or Eurowings network operation this week.
“One of the most noticeable features of airline capacity throughout
the pandemic has been its volatility. Its return to a more stable
position is reflected this week — 13 of the top 20 airlines have less
than 1% changes to their capacity in either direction,” it said.
On Japan’s border reopening to international visitors, OAG does not
expect capacity to “flood back” quickly, given the “relatively short
notice of the chain in restriction”.
Meanwhile, it said capacity to the year-end continues to edge up
week-on-week as some airlines continue to finalise their winter
schedules.
“The current expectation for the end of the year is for capacity to
reach around 4.8 billion, which is 32% up on last year, but around 17%
below the 2019 high water mark.
“Depending on where you are in the table those numbers can either be viewed as ‘good or bad news’,” it wrote.
Looking at this, OAG said the probability of a full recovery in
capacity by the end of 2023 seems “increasingly slim”, given that the
first quarter of the year is typically the weakest point for the
industry.
“Indeed, even a 2024 full recovery may be a step too far,” it added.