As the Middle East conflict approaches the one-month mark, travel businesses across Southeast Asia are reporting mixed impacts, according to a March 2026 survey by ASEANTA and travel consultancy Pear Anderson.
Rising fuel costs – pushing up airfares – alongside concerns over fuel supply remain top of mind. Businesses say these pressures are already affecting inbound operations and could weigh on traveller spending in the months ahead.
Middle East conflicts rattles Far East
The survey, which polled 157 travel businesses across eight Southeast Asian markets, found inbound operators to be the most pessimistic: 74% of inbound travel businesses reported a more negative outlook than at the start of the year, vs 50% of outbound travel businesses.
Singapore-based businesses were the most downbeat, with 67% expecting Q2 2026 enquiries to fall short of earlier projections. This compares with 64% in Malaysia, 54% in Indonesia, 50% in the Philippines and 43% in Thailand.
Inbound outlook weakens
For inbound travel businesses, 54% have received cancellations for May, with the number sharply decreasing for cancellations received in June (21%), and just 3% seeing cancellations from October and onwards, a sign that travellers are taking a wait-and-see approach.
Some 62% of businesses saw some trips postponed or cancelled from Middle East travellers, with a higher number (67%) for travellers from Europe, signalling the significant role that Middle East transit hubs play to facilitate inbound travel into the ASEAN region.
Outbound travel shows more resilience
Outbound travel businesses remain relatively more optimistic, although disruption is still evident.
Almost three-quarters (72%) of outbound travel businesses reported at least some postponements and cancellations for trips to the Middle East, 70% to Europe, and 58% to other regions, demonstrating that the impact on travel beyond connectivity.
At the same time, 64% of businesses believed that Southeast Asia would benefit from redirected travel demand, followed by East Asia (47%) and Europe and Central Asia (24%).
Thai travel businesses were the most confident that Europe would see a growth of interest (56%), likely due to the higher number of direct flights to Europe already operating to Thailand, whilst the Philippines saw a greater chance of travel interest being redirected to domestic (30%).
“The high percentage who believe that travel will be redirected to Southeast Asia confirms that we must work together as one ASEAN to support our tourism and travel ecosystem,” said Eddy Soemawilaga, president of ASEANTA.
He added that travel businesses were quick to highlight the sector’s resilience, with many expecting traveller demand to recover once conditions stabilise.
Pear Anderson director Hannah Pearson added that the shift could also present an “an opportunity to present itself as an alternative transit hub between Australia and Europe, potentially opening up more direct flight routes - and new opportunities.”
Survey respondents were polled in March 2026 and comprised mostly of travel agents/outbound tour operators (71%), followed by DMCs/inbound tour operators (12%) and accommodation providers (6%).