Global business travel is robust – but spending is only moderate and is predicted to slow due to global trade tensions, policy uncertainty and economic pressures.
The latest edition of the GBTA Business Travel Index Outlook, released by the Global Business Travel Association, outlines the prospects for business travel up to 2029.
The good news: Global business travel spending is projected to reach a new historical high of US$1.57 trillion in 2025, representing a moderate year-over-year growth rate of 6.6%. However, it will rebound to 8.1% growth in 2026.
GBTA says long-term forecasts remain clouded by geopolitical and economic volatility.
Despite near-term challenges, global spending is projected to surpass US$2 trillion by 2029 ─ one year later than anticipated a year ago ─ driven by structural shifts in trade, investment, and corporate travel behaviour.
The GBTA BTI report is a five-year forecast of business travel spending covering 72 countries and 44 industries, and includes insights from 7,300-plus global business travellers.
In its 17th edition, in partnership with Visa, this latest forecast reflects a continued recovery in nominal terms but signals growing headwinds.
“As we thoughtfully anticipate reaching a new high in business travel spending this year, the outlook is steady ─ but the road ahead is more complex,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA.
“Trade policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and shifting global supply chains are reshaping how and where companies travel. This latest forecast reflects the resiliency of business travel and our industry as well as the acknowledgment of the risks ahead.”
Key points from the GBTA survey
In the 2025 forecast, the top 15 markets for business travel spending represent $1.31 trillion. The two top markets – the US ($395.4 billion) and China ($373.1 billion) together represent 58% of that total.
The US is projected to reclaim the top spot this year followed by China (which led the list in 2024 and 2023), Germany, Japan, and the UK.
India, South Korea, and Turkey are among the fastest growing among the top 15 markets.
Trade-sensitive sectors such as manufacturing (which accounts for nearly one-third of global business spending) and wholesale trade face heightened risks if trade tensions further escalate.
Service sectors like arts & entertainment and professional services have exceeded pre-pandemic benchmarks, with some growing travel spend by more than 20%.
Looking ahead, mining and information and communication are each expected to post the strongest growth in business travel spend, while agriculture faces the weakest outlook amid shrinking access to export markets.