Record airline revenues, more artificial intelligence, geopolitical impacts and longer flights on narrow-bodied aircraft. These are OAG’s John Grant’s predictions for the trends that will shape air travel in 2026.
Low-cost carriers continue to drive airline growth
Through to the end of this decade, expect most growth globally to be generated from the low-cost airline sector. Major low-cost carriers are due to receive their latest aircraft orders and will expand their networks further. And for many of those airlines we should expect to see an ever-greater focus on ancillary product revenues and maybe even some premium products coming to the market.
Smart airlines will gain an advantage with AI
Expect lots of stories around AI and its increasing use in the industry with many of the developments in operational areas, resulting in a cost benefit to the airlines and improved margins for those clever airlines that test thoroughly and adopt early.
Record revenues for many airlines
Based on current demand and capacity trends, 2026 looks set to be a good year with the potential for record levels of profitability for most airline CEOs. Even some of the less efficient national airlines could break even. Demand continues to be strong, despite concerns around economic growth and consumer confidence, and a weakening of the US dollar would be a positive for many airlines.
Expect more longer narrow-body flights
In 2025, there were some 44,400 narrow-body flights – an increase of more than 18% compared to 2024 – that lasted in excess of more than seven hours and thirty minutes. We expect that to comfortably break the 50,000 mark in 2026 with many transatlantic services added.
Airlines will adapt to geopolitical events – at a cost
Sadly, the reach of geopolitics will never be far away and is always outside the control of the airlines that are inevitably impacted. Airlines and their management teams are very skilled at flipping capacity when necessary, but it always takes a lot of effort and cost.
Sustainability will improve, but targets remain hard to reach
Progress will be made on many sustainability fronts from Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) through to airport facilities and operational vehicles, but meeting the industry’s targets remains almost impossible given where we are today.
European strikes in summer
Let’s not forget that French and German air traffic controllers will likely go on strike – as they tend to do – during the northern summer travel peak, so be prepared if there are travel plans to Bordeaux or Berlin in July or August.