The latest analysis from OAG on the ongoing impact of conflict in the Middle East has looked at capacity cuts made by airlines in response to the oil crisis.
Not surprisingly, Middle East is the most impacted market from the conflict. Airline capacity is down 34.7% in May compared to February – more than one-third of planned capacity no longer in service.
In Southeast Asia, capacity is down 8.3% and in South Asia capacity has slipped by almost 10%.
Among airlines in Southeast Asia, Vietjet significantly reduced domestic frequencies, partly due to fuel shortages as it preserves supplies. Consequently there was a 29% reduction in total capacity, which, OAG says, should result in some higher-than-normal load factors on those services.
However, as travellers opted for routes that avoided the airport hubs in the Middle East, destinations in Southeast Asia have became popular with transit passengers heading for Europe. Airlines have responded by adding capacity.
Thai Airways International – which has doubled fuel surcharges on multiple routes – upped capacity by 2% between February and May.
Across Singapore Airlines' global network, the airline has increased capacity to and from Europe, operating three additional weekly supplementary services on the Singapore–London Gatwick route.
In addition to the existing three weekly scheduled services, SQ314 and SQ313 will operate three times weekly from 31 March to 2 July 2026, daily from 3 July to 29 August 2026, and three times weekly from 1 September to 24 October 2026.
Qantas will extend its additional Perth-Rome services through to the end of October, while Paris flights will reduce to three return services per week from August, operating via Singapore from Sydney.
These changes will add around 2,000 extra seats each week between Australia and Europe as demand for European travel remains strong.
OAG’s John Grant said, “The industry is responding to external factors outside of its control and the impact on markets. For airlines, market disruption is now the new normal for an industry that can move very quickly on occasion.”