The Pacific Asia Travel Association’s latest visitor forecast covering the period 2026-2028 confirms that the region has moved beyond recovery “and entered a new phase of tourism expansion”.
“Change is no longer an occasional disruption; it is the new constant," said PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid.
"The destinations and organisations that thrive will be those that can adapt quickly, innovate continuously, and respond with agility to an increasingly complex and fast-changing world.”
Hamid said success would increasingly depend on destinations' ability to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, evolving traveller behaviour, connectivity challenges, and rising operational costs.
The updated outlook projects that international visitor arrivals (IVAs) across 39 Asia Pacific destinations will reach 714.9 million in 2026, increasing to 758.8 million in 2027 and 789.2 million by 2028.
By the end of the forecast period, visitor arrivals are expected to reach 115.6% of 2019 levels, confirming that the region has moved beyond recovery and entered a new phase of tourism expansion.
PATA’s report reveals that while the region as a whole is expanding, some destinations are significantly outperforming others in terms of growth and recovery.
Among the region's 10 largest destinations, Vietnam is forecast to record the strongest growth between 2025 and 2027, with IVAs increasing by 31.2% to reach 27.8 million. This is followed by Macao, China (+19.4%), Japan (+15.8%), Hong Kong SAR (+13.9%), Türkiye (+12.7%), and Malaysia (+11.6%).
Related: Vietnam’s tourism boom shows no sign of slowing
By contrast, some of the region's largest destinations are entering a more mature growth phase. China, while remaining Asia Pacific's largest destination with 157.8 million arrivals projected in 2027, is expected to grow by just 2.2% over 2025 levels.
Thailand and the USA are likewise forecast to record more modest gains of 5.2% and 9.0% respectively, highlighting increasing competition across the region. Thailand is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level only by 2028.
Related: Can Thailand tourism stay ahead as rivals catch up?
PATA’s Asia Pacific visitor forecast mid-year update was prepared in collaboration with the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism (RCDTT) at the School of Hotel and Tourism Management of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU).