A high-profile diplomatic spat with China appears to have done little to dent Japan’s tourism momentum. The country welcomed a record 42.7 million international visitors last year, surpassing 40 million for the first time and racing past 2024’s impressive total of 37 million.
While tensions with China triggered a sharp 45% decline in Chinese arrivals in December 2025, the impact was offset by robust growth from regional markets like Taiwan and South Korea as well as further afield like Australia, Europe and the U.S.
Globally, Japan has continued to rank favourably as a travel destination, where it held its top three spot for the second-year running, according to Euromonitor International’s most popular cities in 2025.
Increasingly, travellers to Japan also express a desire to explore lesser-known regions. This is a shift that the Japan National Tourism Organization and major industry players such as JTB have been actively encouraging, in an effort to spread visitor flows beyond traditional hotspots like Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka.
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But 2026 may prove to be a more challenging year for Japan.
Much of Japan’s tourism surge in recent years has been fuelled by a weak yen, a tailwind that may persist in the near term. The country has long made known its frustration with overtourism, and 2026 looks like the year authorities will step in with their most aggressive interventions yet.
These include tripling the departure tax to JPY3,000 in July, with further 2028 plans to add inspection fees and a pre-screening system for visa-free travellers. Next to follow is a full reform of tax-free shopping from 1 November, which require tourists to shift to a ‘consumption tax-on’ model similar to practices in Europe.
Accommodation costs are rising too. Kyoto approved Japan’s steepest hotel tax to date in October last year, while Tokyo may soon follow, where the metropolitan government is considering revising its fixed nightly hotel tax to a flat 3% levy on room rates.
JTB is forecasting a modest dip in 2026 numbers: a 2.0% drop for domestic travellers and 2.8% reduction in inbound international numbers to 41.4 million.
Will Japan achieve its ambitious goal of 60 million tourists annually by 2030? This will depend on how these measures reshape travel demand and the country’s broader tourism outlook.