Long haul travel is on a slow flight path to recovery, but airline
data analyst OAG believes that that long-haul is going to recover just
as strongly as the short-haul market in the next year.
Why so? OAG predicts opportunistic developments related to currency
strengths, revenge spending and the late easing of travel restrictions
in some parts of the world will drive growth in long-haul travel.
Compared to summer 2019, OAG says there are just over 9% fewer
long-haul flights operating this summer, noting however a large part of
the current shortfall is based around North-east Asia, and more
specifically China, where less than half of long-haul services have
returned.
One country, India, is doing better than most. The national carrier
is “a hot spot” for long-haul development thanks to new leased aircraft
and route development, including a new service to Tokyo Haneda.
OAG says India is now the centre of aviation development “and will be for at least the next few years”.
“A combination of low-cost growth and network expansion from a
re-energised Air India places the country as the leader in long-haul
growth.”
Elsewhere, OAG says China’s long-haul connectivity remains “a real
issue” as the relatively late announcement of travel restrictions being
eased in the first quarter of the year prevented airlines from planning
services, whilst the avoidance of Russian airspace due to the Ukraine
conflict has compounded that issue for European carriers.
Some 21 airlines that operated long-haul services to and from China
have yet to return to the market with many carriers operating at much
lower levels than in summer 2019, the aviation analyst noted.
Hong Kong has faced similar issues with home carrier Cathay Pacific planning little more half of its 2019 long-haul programme.
Overall, OAG is optimistic that long haul travel, and importantly
sustainable long-haul travel, is on course for recovery, which “can only
be good for a full recovery in economic growth and a fully connected
world once again”.